Is Google search going to meet the fate of IE?
By this, of course, I don’t mean that Google is not going to be updated in 6 years and that competition will run over it. But, there is an analogy here. IE was the dominant browser for quite a long time, and in this time it was the focus of black hat hackers and similar types who drilled so many holes in it that Microsoft was simply unable to fix them. Now that Google is the dominant search engine for quite a while, I can’t help but think that it might have a similar problem.
Take a look at this example. If you enter this search “how student loans affect fico score” into Google, you’re going to get hundreds of seemingly different results. However, they’re all fake. They all point to the same website. I can’t really see the website, I get redirected to this site. I could circumvent this, but it’s not important. The original site is probably trying to squeeze some money from people who are interested in student loans and fico score.
Now, try entering the same search in Live.com. Or Ask.com. Or basically any other search engine. To say that you’ll get better or more relevant results is an understatement. You’re going to get results, while by entering the same search in Google you’re going to get rubbish.
What’s worse is that the Google bombing is done through a network of fake Blogspot accounts, which is again one of Google’s services. Someone is gaming Google here by using its own weaponry, and whoever he/she is, it’s very successful. I don’t know how often this happens, but we might see it more and more in the future.
Now, to get back to the original point: what’s the correlation between Google and IE (or, better put, Microsoft)? The thing is, when you got a monopoly on a certain widely used service, your spotlight is very big. You’re a very big player, but you’re also a huge target. If this service can be (ab)used to make money, then you’re in trouble.
Maybe Google could do more to prevent Google bombing (and fake Blogspot accounts). Maybe not. The thing is, statistically, they’re going to get hit a lot. A company as huge as Microsoft was not able (ok, they were also very lazy about it) to fix the problems with IE. It took them so long to realize that their product is practically unusable due to numerous security problems that the competitor, Firefox, has captured a big portion of the market against all odds.
When I say against all odds, I really mean it. When Mozilla appeared, many web pages weren’t working properly in it. A huge percentage of people couldn’t care less if this was due to these pages not following web standards - they only knew that their favorite page wasn’t working well. Imagine how hard was for Mozilla to change this notion in users’ heads. It took years to do it, and although Microsoft had the time and the means to fix IE, they were helpless all these years. And even now, although IE7 is a much better product than IE6, the momentum is still on Mozilla’s side. The avalanche cannot be stopped.
The point I’m trying to get across here is that maybe Microsoft didn’t lose their browser market share because they weren’t paying attention, or because they had bad programmers, or a bad vision (although all these things were probably true to some degree when IE is considered). I think it might be the natural course of events.
I’m sure that Google has some bright minds in their camp which can fix problems. And I know they have the means. But so did Microsoft. Maybe when you’re monopolizing something as huge as web browsing or web search, you get hit so hard from so many sides that no amount of brains or money can help you.
In traditional economy, if a company is dominating a market it’s very hard for a startup to get a share. Here, we just might have the exact opposite. A new search engine might show up and it’s going to be in a better position because they’re smaller than Google, and because it’s not the target of millions of hackers and gamers. Perhaps this is the way the internet works: maybe its natural tendency is to achieve some sort of balance so that in the end, it’s impossible for one company to dominate in a certain field. We’ll have to wait and see.
February 10th, 2007 at 9:46 pm
I look at Google like I look at the history of capitalism/democracy. Sure it has a lot of flaws–some of which are endlessly annoying, but where we really get in trouble is when we try and fix them. Capitalism didn’t cause the Great Depression, government intervention aimed at reducing panics and mini-depressions like the ones seen in the late 1800’s and early 1900’s did. Google’s hands-off algorithms turn up some pretty horrible results, but when we try and correct them with means that contradict the democratic nature of the site, we’re going to see even worse results.
Yes we get some spammy results, but they are few and far between when you consider just how many accurate results Google turns up everyday.
I say hands off.
Ryan
February 12th, 2007 at 1:32 pm
@Ryan: in this article I was trying to look a bit too far in the future, but I did it on purpose. It’s more about identifying a trend early on, than it is about Google. I’ve written in many articles that I don’t really see anyone dethroning Google any time soon.
February 13th, 2007 at 10:59 am
Matt Cutts is a Google employee and knows about this exact incident. I would be surprised if its not out of the index all together within a week or two. Google like to address this kind of stuff through the algorithm though they can and do use hand edits and reviews to keep stuff exactly like this out.
It will be hard for Google to stay on top and even harder for them to keep the unbelievable amount if goodwill they have. They continue to buy develop services and give them away for free (Picassa, urchin, many others). Pretty cool overall.
February 13th, 2007 at 2:01 pm
@Hornswaggled: they tend to fix incidents like these, but the question is will they be able to keep up with all of them? It’s not going to be easy.
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February 14th, 2010 at 10:16 am
I do not have to deal with Sallie Mae, so I have no ax to grind with them. I know a lot of people think we pick on Sallie Mae, but Sallie Mae has been the focal point of a lot of the changes to the student loan laws over the years.
March 8th, 2010 at 3:32 pm
As for the student loans…So you have the government the only provider, and then you have Obama promising to forgive the loans in inverse proportion to the contributions that those who get them ultimately make to society. Those who contribute nothing at all will get the biggest free ride at the end. Those who go to work for government–which may be the same thing–will potentially have their entire loan forgiven
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